Economic Reports

Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis

Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis provides Outlooks on the Japanese economy every quarter and in-depth analyses on economic issues on a timely basis.

Latest Reports

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• FY2024 - 2025 Economic Outlook (February 27, 2024)―The global economy is heading for a soft landing, but the moderate pace of recovery with lingering risks―(PDF/2,092KB)Apr 10, 2024
• FY2024 New Year Economic Outlook―Dilemmas lurking in the last mile―(PDF/463KB)Feb 2, 2024
• The Japanese Economy's Adaptability to"A World with Interest Rates"(PDF/442KB)December 11, 2023
• FY2023 - FY2024 Economic Outlook (September 25, 2023)―The global economy is polarizing between the US and China. A sense of stagnation is gradually intensifying.―(PDF/1,356KB)October 24, 2023
• Will "savings to investment" advance? - Keys to success of the Doubling Asset-based Income Plan and a simulation of the future―(PDF/295KB)October 16, 2023
• The silicon cycle will soon bottom out - The “recovery” to positive y-o-y growth will probably take place from next spring―(PDF/1,002KB)September 4, 2023
• FY2023 - FY2024 Economic Outlook―Economic slowdown due to rise of inflation and interest rates―(PDF/1,192KB)June 22, 2023
• Evaluating India’s Growth Potential―Investment-led stable growth of 6%, with tailwinds for the IT/electronics sector―(PDF/2,863KB)May 30, 2023
• 7 million labor shortage is expected in 2030―Japan needs to raise productivity through investment in labor saving and human capital―(PDF/1,356KB)Apr 28, 2023
• Is supply chain restructuring good news for ASEAN?―Import dependence on Chinese parts growing behind rising ASEAN exports―(PDF/872KB)Apr 7, 2023
• FY2023 - FY2024 Economic Outlook―Persistent inflationary pressures are lingering. Financial and monetary policy tightening serve as a drag on the global economy.―(PDF/1,224KB)Feb 21, 2023
• China aims for economic normalization in 2023―Economic policy agenda was determined at an important conference based on the “live with the virus” policy―(PDF/679KB)Feb 15, 2023
• FY2023 New Year Economic Outlook(PDF/679KB)Feb 15, 2023
• Growing importance of stable energy supply―Policy support required for a stable procurement of fuels―(PDF/319KB)Jan 23, 2023
• FY2022 - FY2023 Economic Outlook: October 24, 2022―Uncertainties intensified by government policies; rising risk of recession under inflation―(PDF/678KB)December 23, 2022
• US Economy struggles with persistent inflation―Further tightening could lead to a recession in 2023―(PDF/413KB)December 6, 2022
• Emerging Asian countries suffer from high inflation―Economic slowdown is expected in 2023 due to rising prices and interest rates―(PDF/329KB)October 7, 2022
• FY2022 - FY2023 Economic Outlook: July 26, 2022―The future of global inflation and the world economy―(PDF/1,443KB)September 14, 2022
• The COVID-hit Chinese Economy―The economy will return to cruise speed only in 2023, with a V-shaped recovery unlikely―(PDF/1,400KB)September 2, 2022
• Japan's "New Form of Capitalism" and Human Capital Investment―Achieving a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution with JPY 4 trillion in annual human capital investment―(PDF/246KB)July 5, 2022
• FY2022-FY2023 Economic Outlook: April 26, 2022―The global economy will slow down, given the surge of commodity prices accompanying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine―(PDF/1,118KB)June 14, 2022
• FY2022-FY2023 Economic Outlook: February 18, 2022―Despite prolonged US inflation, the global economy should remain on a steady recovery path.―(PDF/555KB)Apr 12, 2022
• Slowdown in the Chinese economy and its impact on the world―Sluggish property investment will dampen Japan’s growth rate―(PDF/447KB)Apr 7, 2022
• FY2021-FY2022 Economic Outlook: December 17, 2021―Despite the recovery of the global economy, it will be necessary to keep a close eye upon Covid-19, the Chinese economy, and inflation risks―(PDF/1,049KB)Feb 21, 2022
• Impact of the commodity market price hike on the Japanese economy―Deterioration in the terms of trade will place a 10 trillion-yen burden on companies and households―(PDF/483KB)Feb 14, 2022
• Production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes in industrial policy boosts manufacturing investment in India―Highly likely to drive medium-term economic growth―(PDF/811KB)Feb 8, 2022
• Emerging countries pressed to tackle inflation―The expected US monetary policy change and stagflation risk―(PDF/351KB)Jan 14, 2022
• After COVID-19 pandemic, emerging Asian economies expecting downward pressure due to fiscal reform commitments(PDF/1.34MB)Dec 6, 2021
• FY2021-FY2022 Economic Outlook: October 22, 2021―Despite prospects of global economic recovery, the resurgence of Covid-19 infections and supply constraints serve as a drag―(PDF/3.77MB)Dec 2, 2021
• Automotive industry suffers from parts procurement―Japanese firms should prepare for long-term supply chain disruptions―(PDF/400KB)Nov 5, 2021
• FY2021-FY2022 Economic Outlook: August 17, 2021―The pace of recovery has been polarized among regions. Polarized goods and services are expected to swing back.―(PDF/3.20MB)Oct 11, 2021
• Economic effect of accelerated vaccinations―One million shots per day will boost Japan's FY2021 GDP by 1%―(PDF/755KB)Aug 24, 2021
• FY2021-FY2022 Economic Outlook: May 20, 2021―The global economy is driven by the US and China. Disparities in capabilities to address the Covid-19 pandemic intensify.―(PDF/781KB)Jul 5, 2021
• 2021 Summer Bonus Forecast―Year-on-year decline continues from last winter; bipolarization becomes even clearer―(PDF/392KB)Jun 28, 2021
• Impact of the third declaration of a state of emergency―What actions are needed to prevent a resurgence of infections in the second half of the year?―(PDF/1.16MB)Jun 8, 2021
• The ASEAN Export Industry Is Evolving―Production transfer from China has promoted the industry’s qualitative growth―(PDF/843KB)May 14, 2021
• Corporate bankruptcies declined even amid the Covid-19 pandemic―“Exit strategies” for cashflow assistance measures will be the key for the future―(PDF/492KB)May 6, 2021
• FY2020 - FY2022 Economic Outlook -Acceleration of investment for digitalization and the environment ("green investments") with a view to the world after Covid-19- (February 16, 2021)(PDF/260KB)Feb 22, 2021
• Sustainability of the US dollar weakness against the Japanese yen -Future yen strengthening pressures are limited based upon current fundamentals- (December 29, 2020)(PDF/541KB) Feb 10, 2021
• RCEP as a starting point for evolution -A mega EPA less than TPP but more than WTO- (November 30, 2020)(PDF/516KB)Jan 28, 2021

MHRT Brief

MHRT Brief is a short report on the Japanese/global economies and financial markets.

Latest Reports

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• Background of the Working Hour Decline in Europe(February 28, 2024)―People are increasingly looking for ways to reduce working hours centered on educated groups―(PDF/1,107KB)May 15, 2024
• New NISA expected to have a limited impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate (January 30, 2024)(PDF/331KB)Feb 26, 2024
• Looking back at the Japanese economy's "2% interest rate era"―The biggest difference between then and now is the BOJ's JGB holdings―(PDF/307KB)Decembe 8, 2023
• China's Economy Continues to Face Challenges―Double-dip decline of the economy averted, but real estate remains sluggish―(PDF/454KB)November 7, 2023
• Will high wage growth continue in 2024?―Wage increase momentum is expected to recede next year as inflation slows―(PDF/516KB)July 31, 2023
• A JGB downgrade may be triggered by Bank of Japan’s policy change ―Worry that a slowdown in long-term government bond purchases may prompt a downgrade―(PDF/302KB)May 8, 2023
• How long will Japan's high inflation last?―Combined factors slow the CPI to the 1% range year-on-year in the second half of FY2023―(PDF/776KB)Mar 13, 2023
• Relaxation of border control accelerates Japan’s inbound recovery―Boosts GDP by 0.2% in FY2022. Limited effect to restrain the yen’s decline―(PDF/411KB)November 4, 2022
• Is household tolerance of rising prices really improving? -“Price increase tolerance DI” is declining, which suggests Japan’s households are still price-sensitive- (June 10, 2022)(PDF/367KB)August 9, 2022

• Japan’s economy under pressure of yen depreciation and commodity price hikes -A wide range of firms and households will be directly hit by the demerits of yen depreciation- (April 22, 2022)(PDF/396KB)June 13, 2022

• Tokyo sees a dramatic decline in population inflow and a sharp rise in outflow -The pandemic brought change to unipolar concentration in Tokyo- (March 31, 2022)(PDF/337KB)May 12, 2022

• Grain inflation shakes emerging countries -Watch out for a "multicrisis" of inflation, foreign currency shortage, and political instability- (April 8, 2022)(PDF/0.97MB)May 12, 2022

• Price hike strikes a heavier blow to low–income households -Slashed education expenses may widen the education gap even further- (January 24, 2022)(PDF/335KB)Mar 11, 2022

• Price hike of daily necessities generates a regressive financial burden on households -Financial impact on low-income households is equivalent to a more than 2% consumption tax increase- (January 27, 2022)(PDF/356KB)Mar 10, 2022

• Japan's industrial production growing firmly even under the Declaration of a State of Emergency -Information-related goods and capital goods are the drivers of growth- (March 1, 2021)(PDF/315KB)Mar 16, 2021

• 2021 Economic Outlook (December 18, 2020)(PDF/360KB)Dec 28, 2020

Monthly Economic Report

Fixed-point analysis of the Japanese economy and financial markets on a monthly basis.

We wish to notify readers that the Monthly Economic Report (MER) will be discontinued as of the March 2022 issue. Thank you very much for reading the MER over the years.
However, our other English-language publications such as the Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis, and the MHRT Brief shall be continued, and we hope to be of your assistance through these publications.

 Latest Reports 

• Monthly Economic Report: March 23, 2022(PDF/642KB)Apr 25, 2022
• Monthly Economic Report: February 22, 2022(PDF/988KB)Mar 25, 2022
• Monthly Economic Report: January 25, 2022(PDF/0.95MB)Feb 28, 2022
• Monthly Economic Report: December 21, 2021(PDF/1.26MB)Jan 27, 2022
• Monthly Economic Report: November 19, 2021(PDF/785KB)Dec 17, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: October 21, 2021(PDF/1.39MB)Nov 18, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: September 22, 2021(PDF/1.03MB)Oct 21, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: August 24, 2021(PDF/1.04MB)Sep 28, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: July 21, 2021(PDF/967KB)Aug 25, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: June 23, 2021(PDF/1.19MB)Jul 21, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: May 26, 2021(PDF/1.18MB)Jun 28, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: April 26, 2021(PDF/0.99MB)Jun 9, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: March 29, 2021(PDF/990KB)Apr 30, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: February 25, 2021(PDF/1.15MB)Mar 31, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: January 28, 2021(PDF/545KB)Mar 5, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: December 24, 2020(PDF/631KB) Feb 1, 2021
• Monthly Economic Report: November 30, 2020(PDF/418KB)Jan 12, 2021

Mizuho Research Paper

In-depth analysis on economy and finance of Japan and Asia.

Latest Reports

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• Mizuho Research Paper [34] July, 2014(Progress of Economic Integration in the ASEAN and Countermeasures taken by Japanese Corporate Enterprises)(PDF/1.04MB)
  Jul 25, 2014